Those are the words of a wise rival distribution executive on the expected results for Sony/Marvel’s Spider-Man: Homecoming which on the low end is looking at a three-day of $105M.
That’s bound to be the third best debut for both a Sony release and a Spider-Man movie following 2007’s Spider-Man 3 ($151.1M) and the original 2002 film ($114.8M). Some even see Homecoming busting past $112M, possibly even hitting $120M, but it’s still too early to call those figures. Today alone, Homecoming looks to clear between $42M-$45M with last night representing 34%-37% of that figure. Following in the wake of last weekend’s Baby Driver, which is bound to make $3.7M today and $12.5M in weekend two (bringing its running cume to $56.6M by Sunday), it’s boom times for Sony. The Culver City studio has been hit-starved hit ever since that 2014 hack (although MGM’s Spectre was a bright spot with over $880M at the global B.O.).
Watch the trailer here
We hear that Homecoming won’t face the slowdown that impacted Universal/Illumination’s Despicable Me 3 last weekend where Friday numbers came on high then fell off. A lot of that had to do with families being distracted by the July 4th holiday. And it’s for that very reason why the sixth Spider-Man is opening post holiday, and why Marvel has slotted Ant-Man and The Wasp post Independence Day next year on July 6: To avoid any box office monkey wrenches. Homecoming is a fanboy film, with some potential family audience built in to spike matinees. It will be interesting to see how frontloaded business is on this Marvel title. Homecoming is running about 5% ahead of Warner Bros./DC’s Wonder Woman at the same time and slowly widening the gap (she ended day 1 with Thursday previews at $38.2M). Plus Homecoming had $4.4M million more in previews than her $11M. Sony is seeing $99M, but we hear that there’s too much love out there from audiences for Homecoming.
Just look at the social buzz: RelishMix says, “Homecoming has its fans in a fever pitch heading into open. They are discussing the flow of clips with looks at the villains, the new Spider-Man suit and more. Moviegoers are calling out their favorite characters – even Marisa Tomei as Aunt May is getting some shout outs…next-gen Spider-Man and MCU Fans make it clear they can’t wait.”
This Spider-Man cost before P&A a similar amount to other titles in the Marvel Cinematic Universe: $175M. That’s more than a third cheaper than Sony’s previous title in the franchise, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 which even with combined theatrical P&A and production costs of $430M saw a profit of $70M-plus after all global TV and home entertainment monies were counted.
Despicable Me 3 is looking at an estimated $34M in weekend two, -53%, after $10.5M today for a total by Sunday of $149.1M. Warner Bros./DC’s Wonder Woman isn’t being bullied by Spider-Man in the marketplace with an estimated weekend six that’s poised to be -30% with $11M and a potential total by Sunday of $369.7M. Gosh, at this pace, can Wonder Woman beat Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($384.7M) to become the highest grossing title of summer?
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